Playoffs round 2!

So, here we are again, week 2. This week features some great match ups I want to touch on. We'll go right down the betting card.

The first game is the Saints and the Cards this afternoon. I like the Saints in this spot because, although both teams are high-powered, the saints have a better defense IMO. Without Boldin again, Warner will have to pick on Larry Fitz and Breaston, where Brees simply finds the open man. One thing that makes Brees so great is that he'll spread the ball all over the field, and it's foolish to double cover one receiver when he has 3-4 great ones out there. I also like the Saints running back situation: The PT cruiser (pierre thomas) for the first 90 yards of the field, then Bush with the screen pass or Mike Bell to pound it in there. It will be interesting to watch and see is Thomas's 3 fractured ribs will slow him down. I like The Saints for their better defense and running game.

My big money is on the Ravens to cover a 6.5 spread against Indy tonight. I'm not sure they won't win outright, either. Indy isn't a good team. I said it. They have a great QB in Manning, but they're below average in everything else. Manning led them to a record seven fourth-quarter comeback wins. 7 of their wins were by 4 points or less. The last time these two played, the Ravens lost by just 2.

The Ravens however, won 3 of their last 4 (a 3 point loss to Pittsburgh), and just beat the Patriots on their home field. Indy is an easier road stadium to win in than Foxborough. I wouldn't play up the home field advantage here too much. Look at this:

 Baltimore rushes for 60 more YPG than Indy offensively, and defensively allows 30 less yards. Baltimore also allows only 16 points per game compared to Indy's 19. Thus far we've seen the teams that can run the ball and that have better defenses win games. Look at the Jets, look at the Ravens last week, look at the Cowboys. Not to mention Indy hasn't played a meaningful game in a month.

Like I said, I like Baltimore to AT LEAST cover this spread, if not win outright.

Sunday Morning brings Church and the Cowboys. I like the Cowboys over the Vikings in the upset spot, because they are playing great defense (remember when they shut down the saints, and didn't lose since?). Dallas is hot, and they are only allowing 15.5 points per game (minnesota allows 19.5). Meanwhile, the Vikings started a slow slide when they lost to Carolina on 12/20, and had just the win over the terrible Giants before their bye week. The Vikings have been struggling, and that's not a team you want to bet on.

Dallas has 3 great running backs who mix things up, while the Vikes have just Adrian Peterson, who is great, but there's no differentiation. When Favre is bad, he's really bad (think end of last year with the Jets), I think we get a bad week out of Favre, maybe 2-3 INT's and 4 sacks.

Cowboys Safety Gerald Sensabaugh said ""We'd have to beat ourselves to lose," "The way we're playing right now, I don't think we can be beat."

The Chargers and the Jets kick off the last game of the weekend. As a Charger fan, I'm scared of the Jets. The Jets played really well against the Bengals, and have a potent running game, and a shutdown corner in Revis who can take Vincent Jackson out of this game. The Chargers, are however, on an 11 game winning streak, and have another great option in Antonio Gates if Jackson isn't available. If the Chargers can stop the Jets running game, I like them to win by double digits, but after seeing how well the Jets played last weekend, I'll take the Chargers Moneyline, or maybe a 6 point teaser in this spot. The key will be to get Sanchez to throw the ball, because the Jets are bad when they rely on his arm. He threw over 20 interceptions this year, and I see a couple more coming Sunday if he throws the ball upwards of 20 times.

As always, I'd love your thoughts and disagreements on these games.