The Oracle sees all:

Yesterday watching Sunday football many of us were made painfully
aware of 1 thing: the NFL wanted to see Peyton Manning and Brett Favre
in the super bowl. ESPN had been talking about it all week: Despite
the Jets having the largest media market of the four teams, and New
Orleans having a great story of a city reborn, Manning V. Favre would
be the biggest draw. The Colts did what San Diego should have (put
away the Jets and fat clown Rex Ryan). It was a hard fought battle the
first half, but everyone knows you can’t count entirely on:


1. Braylon Edwards to catch a ball in the open field


And


2. Wide receiver trick plays to make all of the important downfield passes


Peyton and the Colts stormed back and beat dirty Sanchez, covering the
8 point spread in the process. Pierre Garcon was the difference, as
Peyton avoided throwing near the Jets only exciting player (cornerback
Darelle Revis who was covering no. 1 WR Wayne).


Game 2 was different. It seemed like the Saints were playing against
not only the 11 Vikings on the field, but the referees and the NFL at
large. The Saints were called for 9 Penalties, resulting in 88 yards.
3 of the 9 were called on Incomplete 3rd downs, resulting in a new
series. One was called on a 4th down punt, keeping the Vikings drive
alive with a new series of downs. Twice those were debatable “roughing
the passer” calls. Even the announcers Buck and Aikman were skeptical
of the calls.


Still not convinced? Re-watch the game. How much face time does Favre
get? Favre is one of the first players shown on Camera after the
Saints win in OT. Favre is shown every 2.1 seconds.


The NFL wants people to feel bad for this old guy. When did they show
Brees on the ground after a tough hit? I didn’t see it. But they made
damn sure to replay every time Favre was hit. That guy flops more than
Vlade Divac, former flop KING.

Favre even pretended his ankle really
hurt at halftime, sitting on the trainers bench. “oh come on beagle,
he’s tough, maybe he really was hurt. Really? Were you watching the
same game I was? The game where no. 4 came out and played the second
half without a flinch? Where’s your hurt leg now? Here’s how it reads
in the NY Times the next day “They will remember Brett Favre, the
Vikings’ quarterback, battered by hard hits from Saints defenders,
coming back from an ankle injury to lead two second-half comebacks to
tie the score.”
Right. You tell me how a team who turns the ball over 5 times (3
fumbles lost, 2 interceptions) loses by only 3. I’ll wait.




Yesterday we also saw the emergence of two Oracles’, seers of the
future. The Indy game was blessed by Kyle Abraham, who successfully
texted me 2 DAYS BEFORE THE GAME “Colts 30, Jets 17”. He was right.
After he was, I revisited his other prediction. Saints 26, Vikings 17.
And while he was wrong by halftime, I knew maybe the margin (9) was
what he was seeing. So I placed a prop bet, saints to win by 7-10
points. He was wrong again when the Vikings scored with 5 minutes left
in the 4th, tying the game (7 point margin was now gone). Maybe what
he was seeing was Brees’ number “9”, as the difference in the game.
We’ll see what his predictions are for the superbowl. He is one of two
so far…


The second Oracle is the Saints kicker, Hartley. Have you heard about
this? Hartley and his dad confirmed that late Saturday night, Hartley
called his pop with a prediction “I’m going to hit the game winner,
from 42 yards out, right hashmark”. It happened, except from 40 yards
out. Saints won by 3. You can read about it here
(http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/25/sports/football/25nfc.html)
Armed with this knowledge, maybe Vegas and I wouldn’t have had the
Saints line at 3.5…

Haiti: Thanks but NO THANKS

Beagleview exclusive:

Following in a trend with other celebs, Lady Gaga offered something to help those in Haiti... and they rejected.

After submitting to the government a proposal to sing "bad romance" in a skimpier version of her frog outfit for those left homeless, the Haitian government countered "we're desperate...but no that desperate. That literally does nothing, for anyone. Plus Ur ugly."

In a second correspondence, the government added: "But we will take Justin Beiber if  he's interested"

Final Thoughts from Kaedings Final Day as a Charger

Next up:

1. Why the Jets image as a good team is a fraud.
2. Why you should always bet exactly against the way I do
3. Sanchez/Coach caught having Buttrex in visitor locker room

John Harbaugh's retarded gameplan for the Colts

I'll give it to the Raven's D, they held indy to 20. Not too bad (although Peyton manning couldn't be stopped on 3rd or 4th downs) But the real travesty was the offense. Ray Rice had 13 carries for 67 yards, and 9 receptions for 60. Hello? Shouldn't John Harbaugh realize they have receivers? Next leading receiver had 4 catches (almost all of them on the first drive).

Look, Indy's D came to play, which isn't what most people expected, considering the year they had. BUT if they're targeting, and stopping, Ray Rice for 4 yards or less every time he touches the ball, shouldn't the Ravens, um, try something new? Like throwing the ball BEYOND the first down marker?

Playoffs round 2!

So, here we are again, week 2. This week features some great match ups I want to touch on. We'll go right down the betting card.

The first game is the Saints and the Cards this afternoon. I like the Saints in this spot because, although both teams are high-powered, the saints have a better defense IMO. Without Boldin again, Warner will have to pick on Larry Fitz and Breaston, where Brees simply finds the open man. One thing that makes Brees so great is that he'll spread the ball all over the field, and it's foolish to double cover one receiver when he has 3-4 great ones out there. I also like the Saints running back situation: The PT cruiser (pierre thomas) for the first 90 yards of the field, then Bush with the screen pass or Mike Bell to pound it in there. It will be interesting to watch and see is Thomas's 3 fractured ribs will slow him down. I like The Saints for their better defense and running game.

My big money is on the Ravens to cover a 6.5 spread against Indy tonight. I'm not sure they won't win outright, either. Indy isn't a good team. I said it. They have a great QB in Manning, but they're below average in everything else. Manning led them to a record seven fourth-quarter comeback wins. 7 of their wins were by 4 points or less. The last time these two played, the Ravens lost by just 2.

The Ravens however, won 3 of their last 4 (a 3 point loss to Pittsburgh), and just beat the Patriots on their home field. Indy is an easier road stadium to win in than Foxborough. I wouldn't play up the home field advantage here too much. Look at this:

 Baltimore rushes for 60 more YPG than Indy offensively, and defensively allows 30 less yards. Baltimore also allows only 16 points per game compared to Indy's 19. Thus far we've seen the teams that can run the ball and that have better defenses win games. Look at the Jets, look at the Ravens last week, look at the Cowboys. Not to mention Indy hasn't played a meaningful game in a month.

Like I said, I like Baltimore to AT LEAST cover this spread, if not win outright.

Sunday Morning brings Church and the Cowboys. I like the Cowboys over the Vikings in the upset spot, because they are playing great defense (remember when they shut down the saints, and didn't lose since?). Dallas is hot, and they are only allowing 15.5 points per game (minnesota allows 19.5). Meanwhile, the Vikings started a slow slide when they lost to Carolina on 12/20, and had just the win over the terrible Giants before their bye week. The Vikings have been struggling, and that's not a team you want to bet on.

Dallas has 3 great running backs who mix things up, while the Vikes have just Adrian Peterson, who is great, but there's no differentiation. When Favre is bad, he's really bad (think end of last year with the Jets), I think we get a bad week out of Favre, maybe 2-3 INT's and 4 sacks.

Cowboys Safety Gerald Sensabaugh said ""We'd have to beat ourselves to lose," "The way we're playing right now, I don't think we can be beat."

The Chargers and the Jets kick off the last game of the weekend. As a Charger fan, I'm scared of the Jets. The Jets played really well against the Bengals, and have a potent running game, and a shutdown corner in Revis who can take Vincent Jackson out of this game. The Chargers, are however, on an 11 game winning streak, and have another great option in Antonio Gates if Jackson isn't available. If the Chargers can stop the Jets running game, I like them to win by double digits, but after seeing how well the Jets played last weekend, I'll take the Chargers Moneyline, or maybe a 6 point teaser in this spot. The key will be to get Sanchez to throw the ball, because the Jets are bad when they rely on his arm. He threw over 20 interceptions this year, and I see a couple more coming Sunday if he throws the ball upwards of 20 times.

As always, I'd love your thoughts and disagreements on these games.

Unforgiven...Thus far

I've got some thoughts and motives behind McGwire's Apology.

            First: Why did it take so long? Sorry Big Mac, everyone knew you were guilty in that courtroom, and “I don’t want to talk about the past” is clearly incriminating. Rafael Palmeiro straight-up lied in that same courtroom, and got booed out of baseball when he came back guilty. Dude had to wear earplugs to home games because of all the boos. So why did you wait?

            Fans want to forgive, but they want an admission and apology first. It’s hard to remember who has admittedly done steroids, but we can’t forget who is under speculation. Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, David Ortiz to name a few. Check out this list:

http://www.baseballssteroidera.com/bse-list-steroid-hgh-users-baseball.html

How many under “admitted” are really in trouble right now? Add to that Pettitte, Brian Roberts who both apologized, got no suspensions, and continue to play without much mention of that stuff.

            

Maybe Mcgwire saw these apologetic guys getting forgiven, and non-confessed players still on everyone’s shit list. Maybe he wanted off said shit-list and wanted forgiveness? My guess is...

Who’s to say he didn’t wait out two voting periods to the Hall of Fame before realizing he won’t have a shot without a confession? Eventually the vote comes down to the writers, so he came clean a few days after getting snubbed a second time, (thinking) hopefully they will have fully forgiven him enough to vote him in come 2011. Maybe he thought non-admission would be good enough for them to vote him in 2 years ago. Now that he's tried that, he'll try the apologetic angle. Personally, I think it's crazy that he's not in yet. Pete Rose too. Why? Because Ty Cobb is in. I don't care that he's a legend. He is probably top 10 meanest people to live pre-1950. Check this (from themorningnews.org) "A racist, a bigot, and a thug, Cobb slept with a loaded revolver beneath his pillow in case his teammates tried to beat him up in the night. He took his anger out on the game: hitting, running, and fielding like no one before. Even in that early, anarchistic era of sharpened cleats and raging mobs in the bleachers, Cobb was the supreme force of anarchy. Once, after being heckled by a fan, Cobb leapt into the stands and pummeled the man, who was later revealed to have been missing most of his fingers from an industrial accident. Off the diamond Cobb wasn’t much better: He routinely punched or knocked down passing blacks on the streets and once, during an altercation in a Cleveland hotel, Cobb slashed the black night manager with a knife."

Thoughts from the Bash Bros...

Tonight's NBA Pick

I like New Orleans, who have won 6 in a row, and are going against a Philly Team who is 4-12 at home (and is probably playing without Iverson tonight). N.O. is a small dog (you'll probably get 1.5 points or +110 on the moneyline here). Here's the quick accuscore data

Consider this my play of the day

Winning at the Staples center...

01/10/10 playoffs

Thus far we've seen teams with a better D come through twice in this wild card weekend. The Jets shut down the Bengals, and the Cowboys walloped the eagles. Early on I decided against a play on this team, but because I do like Philly, I tried a conservative +10.5 bet which still lost. Live and learn. If you followed my Jets or NBA Philadelphia picks, you're still way up though

My Ravens pick is looking good as of halftime, and as predicted, the better Ravens defense and a Pats offense without Welker has been shut down (minus the punt recovery, which honestly, should have been called the Raven's ball).

I'm still looking forward to the Green Bay/Arizona game, which has a line move of close to 5 points in the GB direction since early this week. The smart money is moving that line, because Everyone knows the GB defense is much better than Arizona's. If AZ can't throw the ball, this game should end with the Pack up by at least a touchdown.

We'll see if the "better defense" trend continues through the playoffs... Traditionally it has

Philly road trip

First off, love that Jets win! As predicted, Revis shut down Ocho for only 2 catches and 28 yards, with an INT. The Jets were a more physical team, and got the much deserved win. look out for these underdogs in round 2.

I'm picking (NBA) Philly straight up to win in Detroit tonight. Although AI is sitting, I feel like tonight isn't the night that detroit turns it around... They've lost 10 f 11, 9 of those by double digits. I'm taking Philly +170

I'm Also taking the adjusted NFL line (Eagles +10.5) for a mere -260. I think this one's going to be closer than they think.

Value on NBA Home Games

Last night the Lakers were a 3.5 point favorite when they visited the Portland Trail Blazers, despite the fact the Blazers hadn't lost a home game to the Lakers since 2005! Last night, 9/12 home teams won their games straight up, beating teams like the Cavs, Lakers, Celtics and Magic! For some reason, the home court has a huge influence on these games. Looking over the season thus far, only 6/30 teams have losing records at home... and 3 of those are in the Atlantic division (NY, Philly and NJ).

Today's spreads have ALL of the home teams favored to win. My point is, whenever you see a an underdog at home, they warrant serious consideration for a money line play, if not at least a spread play.

UNDERDOG (WILDCARD WEEK) LINES

Here's the lines I like this weekend with a brief why:


Jets have a shutdown corner in Darelle Revis, AKA REVIS ISLAND


Without Ochocinco, the Bengals will have a tough time throwing the ball, as Palmer did all season (although Mark Sanchez will probably continue to struggle as well). I see this game being a running game, coming down to shutdown D from the Jets, and a game of few touchdown keep this total under 34.


Can Dallas beat the eagles 3 times in a season? hard to say, both teams can be explosive. I'll take my money to the under though, as both D's will step up against the pass, and only allow a few TD's through the air. Desean Jackson will be doubled up, and butterfingers Williams (IMO) can't be trusted for the 'boys.


Patriots: Without Welker. Do I need to say more? Without him, Moss and Brady's numbers really SUFFER. I like Baltimore's advantage here


The only Reason the Cardinals are getting a point here is because of home field. The spread has already moved 2 points in the Packers favor since it opened. Minus the last-second-loss at Pitt, the Packers have won 8 in a row, and haven't lost Against The Spread in those 8 weeks. 

Here's this season's splits in 
points scored, points allowed between these two

Pack- 28.8 / 18.6
Zona- 23.4 / 20.3

 Quick ratio shows us, on average in this game, pack will score 24.5, Zona will score 21. Not to mention the Card's #2 reciever (Boldin) is out, I think Green bay can double up on Larry Fitz and win this one.

STAY AWAY FROM LA!

Last night I was reminded why I don't bet on the Lakers spreads this year. The Clippers not only covered that spread (+5), but beat up the Lakers 102-91. Now the Lakers are still 28-7, but for an elite team, they have not been convincing their dominance. They are 15-20 Against the Spread, and have a bad tendency to look past the struggling teams in the league. Example: Sacramento is 14-20. They have lost 6-7 of their last games. They've had it rough, with their two leading scorers out for weeks. Sacramento had LA by the balls BOTH times they played.


Game 1 ended after double OT, and the kings had the ball with 15 seconds left in regulation, tie game. Instead of moving the ball to get a shot, Tyreke Evans forced it up, bricked, and eventually they hemorrhaged a 7 point OT1 lead as well.

Game 2 ended 109-108, with Kobe pulling off the shove in the final seconds before nailing that        LAST SECOND 3. 

According to Tim Donaghy's book, (the gambling ref): If Kobe Bryant had two fouls in the first or second quarter and went to the bench, one referee would tell the other two, "Kobe's got two fouls. Let's make sure that if we call a foul on him, it's an obvious foul, because otherwise he's gonna go back to the bench. If he is involved in a play where a foul is called, give the foul to another player."

Even with star treatment, the Lakers are having a difficult time putting away teams they should handle. Now I'm not saying they're bad.... But I'm not taking a single spread on the Lakers this season. W/L maybe, but careful with them.

"BCS Championship" or "Why I can't see Texas winning"

One of the perks of living in beautiful Pasadena is the Rose Bowl. This historic stadium (and 3 mile running/biking loop) draws millions annually for UCLA games, concerts, recreation, rose parade floats, and "the granddaddy of them all" The Rose Bowl game. This year Pasadena doubled up and got the National Championship game as well. This means there will be one more week where thousands of fans foreign to this city will come parading downtown, filling the bars and either celebrating a win (drinking), or drowning the taste of a bitter loss (drinking more).

This is precisely why I want to be downtown tomorrow night around, say 9pm. Tons of Texas/Bama folk will be drunken and spilling their funny words with funny accents all over this town. I'm sure cowboy hats and boots will be seen all the way down the Colorado Blvd strip. This night literally has unlimited potential, equaled maybe only by that weird dance party you went to (everyone has been to one) which had unlimited alcohol.

Onto the game: There's 3 reasons why I think Alabama wins.

#1: Texas is pretty good offensive team (40.7 PPG). Florida is a comparable and maybe better offensive team. Alabama beat Florida and held them to 13 points. Tebow cried.

#2: Texas is a bad defensive team. On average they give up only 15.2 ppg, but had a difficult time against texas tech, yielding 39 points in a game that went down to the final minutes. Alabama gives up only 11 PPG, and puts up 31.7.

#3: Texas stumbled to the finish line. the aforementioned Texas Tech game was almost a disaster. They only beat Nebraska 13-12 (line was -14). They turned the ball over 5 times in the last 2 games. Alabama only 3. They take better care of the ball on offense. Oh yeah, and they have the Heisman-Winning running back on their side ('Bama rushes for 215.8 yds/game, Texas for 152.7).

I think Alabama will play better D and put up a couple rushing touchdowns, where the longhorns throw 2 td's/2 picks. Final score 24-17.

Weak 17

The NFL season just finished wrapping up week 17, which was the weakest viewing experience most fans could have had, for multiple reasons.

First, Fantasy football only runs 16 weeks, so the 17th has no value for millions of Sunday fans. Rightfully so, as all teams with a locked playoff spot will bench their players to ensure the starters are healthy for week 18. (this worked for everyone but Wes Welker of the Pats. See: Welker goes down

Second reason this week was terrible ties in with reason one. Teams sit their stars. The margin between first string and second string players is amazing.

Example: You figure the 14-1 Colts could have a decent showing against the 5-10 Bills going into week 17. They were, in fact, undefeated while they played their starters for the entire first 14 games of the season.  But in week 17 of 2009, they lost to the Bills 30-7. The Colt's backup QB, Curt Painter, understudy to one of the greatest QB's to ever throw a ball, completed only 4 passes (that's 1 completion for every 4.25 attempts!)

This was the story behind the weekend. Playoff teams shut it down early. I would imagine not even Bills fans feel good about a win like this. And how can you? "Thanks for the win, even though you weren't trying"

How about the previews of playoff round 1? Eagles/Cowboys, Packers/Cards, Jets/Bengals, maybe there would be some excitement there? Nope, they mailed it in too. Combined scores: 94-7 (Cowboys, Packers and Jets destroyed their opponents)

But, like drinking liquor, the chaser always ends the bitter taste of the shot. We should be seeing a brilliant playoff round next week.