Propping a Boner

I’m sure that anyone reading my blog watched the super bowl yesterday, so I won’t recap the drives and the obvious outcome. I don’t find that stuff to be a particularly exciting or enjoyable read if you saw it live, and I have to assume that neither do you. I will say that the Saints were a great team to watch all year, and its good to see the “underdog” take this one. I’m also glad that the game went under the posted total of 57 points. It was absolutely absurd to see an NFL total go that high, and I cashed the under easily. I think people seem to forget that when the Colts or Saints win a game scoring 30-40 points, they usually hold the opponent under 20. The reason these teams score often is because of their ability to capitalize on drives, and force turnovers. Taking possessions away from an opposing team limits their ability to score, which is why you’ll often see 30-14 or 37-10 types of games. With both teams playing well and not turning the ball over (except for Porter’s 4th quarter pick-6), there were essentially less chances of a huge shootout or blowout type of game. Hope that makes sense. I believe that if you play that game 100 times, 75% of the time it goes under 57. That’s an astronomical number that Vegas knows people will bet on.



Now Things I do find interesting are the props. Proposition bets are things off the field that aren’t particularly related to the game. Like the side of the coin that will land on the coin flip (heads won it). The length of the national anthem (over 1:42?). How much time will be on the clock when the coach gets doused with Gatorade? (Under :45, actual time about :20) I’d like to recap the results of some of the funny/interesting ones ones.

In the party house I went to we were all watching The Who halftime show. There was one thing we all wanted to see: how many Windmills would the guitarist do? It’s Pete Townsend’s thing you know. The line was 6. if you bet over 6, you would have won. He had done 5 by the time song 2/5 was done in their medley. We were all talking about this one: someone, probably a temp/roadie intern type of guy, had to have said “hey Pete, they’re betting on how many times you’ll do the arm-windmill thing” Pete goes “really? What’s the number?”, “6” intern replies, “Oh” Pete says, “I’m gonna F***ing crush that”

The big tip-off should have been during the pre game show, when they showed light footage of their rehearsal, and in Pete’s 2 seconds of face time, he cranks out 4-5 windmills. That was the giveaway: This guy was here to set a breeze the entire staium would feel. Final number was like 20-something. Maybe it was his way of seeming really cool, and making up for not smashing the guitar afterwards (another yes or no prop). That one seemed easy. Ever since the Jackson nip slip, the Super bowl committee has booked people too old to do any really good damage to the audience. Yeah, Pete can swing his arm, but is he really strong enough to lift that thing and break it? Don’t think so, easy win. Here’s some more results:

How long will it take Carrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem?

Over/Under 1 minute and 42 seconds

WINNER = OVER (1:45), DUH! Singers love to draw that sucker out! Over has won the last 2-3 years in a row now!


What color will the Gatorade dumped on the winning head coach be?

WINNER = Orange (5 to 1) * third biggest long shot. Orange is a classic flavor though, and in my mind, players would probably prefer that flavor in the cooler over some of the other colors (blue, lemon lime) that were available.


How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV: over/under = 4.5

WINNER = UNDER *contrary to heavy action on “over”. Mike Strap said it best “This is the superbowl, they have more important things to show that certain people in the stands.” Even if he is tied to both teams.



How many times will Kim Kardashian be shown on TV: over/under = 2.5

WINNER = UNDER *contrary to heavy action on “over”. This was sketchy from the beginning. This isn’t like Kurt Warner’s wife, who overcame cancer etc. This is the girlfriend of a Running-Back in a timeshare situation. Easy call on the under here.


Will Kim K. Be shown in saints attire?

Winner= NO, because she was never shown, and we’ll never know what she was wearing.


Who will the Super Bowl MVP “thank” first?

WINNER = “does not thank anyone” (2 to 1). This is surprising, Usually there winner is “God”, “Teammates”, “Coach”, “Fans” etc. Considering MVP was going to be a quarterback, and Drew Brees is a “religious” guy to be PC, I would have thought thanks would have been given to someone if not God at least. Big shocker here.


How many times will Katrina be mentioned during the game? Over/Under 2.5

Winner= Under. This was a bit surprising, but also nice not to hear about it the whole time. I thought the announcers did a great job.

What’s higher, the sum of Kim K’s measurements or Reggie bush total rushing/receiving yards +28?

Kim=34+26+39= 99. Reggie Bush 25 yds rushing/38 receiving =63, +28= 91

Winner=Kim’s Junk. This was a silly, but close one!

 

Will a player give the crowd the "middle finger"?

Winner= no. Easy 8-1 take here too. These teams are way classier than Rex Ryan!

If Saints win, will Reggie Bush and Kim Kardashian be engaged by July 31, 2010? No = -150 (meaning the chance has been placed at 40 percent)


We’ve got about 6 months before this one is settled!


I’m a little astounded at the number Reggie/Kim K bets, but LA is a big market and there are 2 big ties there. And after all, there were over 300 bets this year, and I’m looking forward to picking some of the 300 next year as well!