Dear beagle view, can tampa beat cliff lee in a game 5 vs texas?

Yes. Thy laid a 6 spot on him earlier in the year. But they way they played at home In games 1-2 I wouldn't bet on it

Thanks for the question Paul

Wowtheraysarebad

Can you believe it? The rays have shit the bed. I'm betting the mortgage on Texas in game 3... Not because I think they're that much better, but because the Rays couldn't get a hot in batting practice right now. Sheesh. Missed opportunities galore.

Ps the injured twins should be going down here shortly as well

Quick pick divisional series winners

Per my earlier post about the importance of streaks:
Rays run all over rangers, take series 3-1
Yankees sweep struggling and injured Twins

Giants over braves 3-2
Phillies 3-1 over Reds, with dominant wins (4+ runs)

Thoughts?

Going Streaking...

One of my biggest beliefs is that streaks are AS IMPORTANT in baseball as any other stat. I don't really care what a pitcher's era is if they run into a team that's won 5-6 in a row or more. Any team can get hot at any time, and even though it's not "fair" to the teams on the playoff bubble, it happens every year. Teams with nothing to play for knock off the Playoff hopefuls. 2 examples this year:

The Cubs are 16 games back in their division and just took 2-3 from San Diego, and may take 3/4. They are 3/5 over their last 5, but more importantly they held the Pads to 5 runs over 3 games, including a shutout. Effectively this took any chance of the Padres making the playoffs away.

Toronto has won 6/7 and took 2/3 from the Yankees

P.S.
In 2004, the Red Sox came back from 0-3 to the Yankees in the ALCS, and ended up winning 7 Straight, THROUGH the World series. Similar story in 2007.

Anyways, All this to say I think teams going in Hot/Cold to the playoffs DOES MATTER. With that, my predictions:

Minnesota loses in the first round to the Rays (Minnesota lost 5 of their last 6)

Texas beats the Yankees, (Yankees are 8-12 over their last 20, including getting swept by Texas over a 3 game set)

Giants beat Atlanta if they play (Giants have won 4 straight)

Phillies beat Cincinatti (Phillies are a ridiculous 16-4 over their last 20)

So There you have it, my predictions.

Rays, Texas, Giants and Phillies in the Championship Series'

Thoughts?

NFL Week 1 review... Actually this is more about Hot Wings

There were a few things that I want to touch on following the first week of football

I'm going to get the obvious ones out of the way first:
Calvin Johnson scored a touchdown, and I don't care if "the rule" was applied correctly or not. It's a bs rule. You're going to tell me that a running back can dive down the sidelines, touch the Pylon with the ball and that's a touchdown? And Calvin Johnson's isn't?

The Bills still suck. They almost covered the +3 spread Vegas put on them... until they snapped the ball out of the endzone for a safety with like a minute left. The Greatest thing in Buffalo, NY is still the wings.

Speaking of, are Wings and Football a better match than Hotdogs and Baseball?

Are Hot Wings and Football a better duo than Hot Dogs and Baseball? Yes, Wings are WAY MORE bomb during a game No way, Dogs and Baseball are CLASSIC! view results

Speaking Honestly, I love Wings and Football. I think with all of football's stoppages, it lends itself to the fan having time to select a new wing, dunk it in ranch, and look back towards the tv. 4 downs, 4 wings. This is why Superbowl parties are centered around food... You've got time to eat every time the punting unit comes on the field, followed by the defensive unit.

Baseball on the other hand is 220 pitches (if it's a fast game), and you down't have a lot of time to look away. May 2, 2006 I took one pitch off at an Angels game to grab a cheeto, and missed Eric Chavez's HR landing 2 EMPTY ROWS in front of me. Some Cholo ran over and grabbed the ball. I haven't eaten a cheeto since. Box Score= HERE

Hotdogs can be eaten with one hand, and eyes up. They don't require as much discipline as a Wing.

Here's a list of things you can do while eating a Dog (but not wings): You can drive, play wii (if it's a non-nunchuk game), give the Dodgers the finger, Curl weights, talk on the phone, hail a taxi, write a post it note, beat it, delete emails etc.

A dog is a convenience food, LOWER common denominator. You don't need any heat tolerance, time or beer to wash it down. Wings are a gentlemen's food, gentlemen who would go out into the street and have an old fashioned duel with their colt .45's

Ah, the Colts. They Lost their 5th game this season (4 straight preseason games). That's what Manning gets for not playing Preseason. They also gave up 230 Yards to the Arian, Arian Foster. I think they, like the Chargers, still go on sick runs and each win their divisions. You can't tell me that QB isn't the most deciding factor in football. I mean, I don't think the Colts even have running backs, they just throw people out there in the RB position, and they go out for passes too.

Here's a short list of Who's Overrated this season

Vikings
Jets
Eagles
Steelers
Seahawks (now)

What's the problem with each of these teams? QB. I think Favre regresses to his Jets-year play, Mark Sanchez won't throw a pass more than 10 yards downfield. Kevin Kolb/Michael Vick haven't proven anything (and their rushing game is immature as well). Big Ben doesn't have Santanio Holmes to throw to, and Hines Ward will get more coverage. Pete Carroll, seems nice, but his team is old old old. The Niners made them look good... but I'm thinking Julius Jones isn't good enough to carry a team which may have an injured QB sometime soon.

Thoughts?

NFL Team Win Totals

Ok Guys, now that football is back I feel like writing weekly again about things that are interesting/hilarious and sometimes I'm just gonna come on and beat up on a player or a team.

Anyways, you know I believe Vegas knows sports better than anyone... Here is their over/under win total for each team. Comment below if you think they got your your favorite team or rival's total wrong:

Arizona Cardinals – Over 7.5

Atlanta Falcons – Over 9 

Baltimore Ravens Over 10 

Buffalo Bills – Over 5.5 

Carolina Panthers – Over 7.5 

Chicago Bears – Over 8 

Cincinnati Bengals – Over 7.5

Cleveland Browns – Over 5.5 

Dallas Cowboys – Over 9.5 

Denver Broncos – Over 7.5

Detroit Lions – Over 5

Green Bay Packers – Over 9.5 

Houston Texans – Over 8 

Indianapolis Colts – Over 11 

Jacksonville Jaguars – Over 7 

Kansas City Chiefs –Over 6.5 

Miami Dolphins – Over 8.5

Minnesota Vikings – Over 9.5 

New England Patriots -Over 9.5 

New Orleans Saints – Over 10.5 

New York Giants – Over 8.5 

New York Jets – Over 9.5

Oakland Raiders – Over 6 

Philadelphia Eagles – Over 8.5

Pittsburgh Steelers – Over 9 

San Diego Chargers – Over 11

San Francisco 49ers – Over 8.5 

Seattle Seahawks – Over 7.5

St Louis Rams – Over 5 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Over 5.5 

Tennessee Titans – Over 8.5 

Washington Redskins – Over 7.5

Personally I like the Niners and Titans both to win 9-10 games, and the Jets to win 6 MAYBE 7. I'll also take the Lions under 5.

Thoughts?

Let's Talk WORD CUP

Ok, looks like we're getting down to the nitty gritty with the world cup. America has been eliminated, as usual, but a country roughly 1/10 their size. England shit the bed and gave up 4 goals to Germany, and Brazil Just got upset by Holland (+330)! Argentina is making their coach look like a genius, but can they beat Germany Saturday morning at 10?

There are plenty of ways to bet this World Cup if you think you know who's gonna win it.
Playersonly even takes simple Visa Deposits, simply follow this link

Hiatus Over

Well it's been a turbulent few months between moving back to Chico, CA and starting a new Job. It's easy to forget to do things like, post about the love of sports/gambling and both! I'm back now though!

Lets start dissecting the NL West Division of Baseball.

as of 6/3 2010, the Padres hold the lead in the NL west, which is incredible considering they have no recognizable names in their lineup. BUT they have a pitching staff which has been absolutely killer. Someone must have taugt them how to unlock the power of petco, because they have been winning games 2-1 and 1-0 all season long. Maybe it's like when you play softball in a league without a fence. pitchers are happy to settle for a 500 foot fly ball as long as there's an outfielder underneath it?

Here's the rest of the west, summarized by their order in the standings:
The Dodgers are rolling into second place slightly behind the Padres. They have the best offense in the division, but their pitching has been spotty behind Kershaw and newcomer John Ely. Billingsly has been very hit and miss. the #4 and #5 starter spots have been shaky, and that's what may hold them back from playoffs this year.

The Giants are the Padres with an ERA of 2 runs higher, and awful bullpen. They score about the same amount, have a large ballpark, but just can't have a consistent offense. They need Pablo Sandoval, Huff and new aquisition Burrell to harness their power potential if this team wants to make playoffs. Lincecum, Cain and their #5 starters have been spotty lately. I think they'll eventually move Cain for a left handed bat with power...

Colorado continues to be streakier than your dad's underwear. This team can rip off 15 wins in a row, or can be shutout for an entire series. Ubaldo Jimenez has been killer, but can their #2-5 pitchers carry the team through the tough series? You really never know how this team will come out to play, but that always makes them a threat down the stretch.

Arizona has the worst bullpen in the majors, and Dan Haren hasn't been too consistent. Brandon Webb is hurt, again. The Diamonbacks are great for one thing: young fantasy baseball players. Some of these guys will lead the league in categories (upton, reynolds), but their team chemistry isn;t there, and neither is the pitching. Bet against Arizona every game and you may get rich quick!

Oscar Odds

Let's cut to the chase, here's who the sportsbooks expect to win, and odds to win

(-200 means bet 200 to win 100, -1000 means bet 1000 to win 100 etc)

These are who the books are picking. most of the other nominees are good longshots, up in the air is 80-1 to win best picture...)
Best picture-Hurt locker= -200 (avatar is 2nd and even money)
Best Actor-Jeff Bridges= -1000!
Best Actress- Sandra bullock= -250
Director- Kathryn Bigelow= -700
Supporting Actor-Christoph Waltz= -2500!
Supporting Cctress- Mo'Nique= -2000! (never thought I would see this day! Would have thought she would be a bet $5 to win $1,000,000 situation)
Foreign Film- White Ribbon

Most Awards= Avatar -400 (hurt locker second at +200)

have fun guys, hopefully this will hep your brackets if you have some going!

TIGER DOESN'T OWE YOU SHIT!

You know what? Tiger doesn’t owe you shit. Tiger doesn’t owe me an apology, he doesn’t owe you or the media an apology. The only ones that deserve an explanation are his wife, kids, and maybe those who know Tiger on a personal level. People who he buys Christmas presents for, or remembers when their birthdays are. As for us, well now he’s prepared a speech to “clear the air” a bit about his infidelity, sex rehab, and future.


I’m not going to comment on how his speech went, what he said because really I don’t care. I care when he will be playing golf again, and that’s about it. You know why? Because that’s all we ever cared about.

I’m betting you can’t name the top ten golfers from the 90’s, before tiger joined the tour. I’m actually betting you can’t name 10 now either. You and me both know that Tiger made an almost unwatchable sport watchable. He was to golf what Arnold was to Bodybuilding: a superstar who drew interest from everyday people. In the 70’s everyone knew bodybuilding existed, but until Arnold came around and started crushing competitions, it was not interesting. I feel the same about golf. What would golf be without Tiger? Be honest, have you spent more than 5 minutes watching a major tournament since Wood’s car accident?


All that we knew about Tiger was that he played golf since he was 3, and has been absolutely crushing the game and everyone he plays against. HE WAS CRUSHING TO BALL ON THE COURSE, AND ABSOLUTELY CRUSHING PUSSY OFF OF IT. Still, There’s no doubt in my mind he will go down as the greatest golfer of all time, ahead of Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer.

Nobody cared about tiger’s life off the links. He was sportsman of the year multiple times, won tournaments with a broken leg, and was larger than life. I couldn’t tell you what kind of Buick was being sold, but I knew Tiger endorsed Buick. He also endorsed Nike, Accenture “be a tiger” and Gillette, among many others. Tiger was the king of golf, an unlikely sport to present a universally recognized face to put on advertisements.






Would anyone really care if Phil Mickleson had 15 running affairs? What about Vijay Singh? It’s no secret that Americans have a sick obsession with watching their heroes fail. No one cares when Alex Sanchez gets caught for steroids, but Mcgwire, A-Rod? “CHEATER!” “A-FRAUD!” “LIAR!”.

We Americans get so giddy when we see our heroes get reduced to…human. Here’s the thing. They are humans who do one thing extraordinarily well. It doesn’t mean they’re a necessarily “better person” than us. Have you ever achieved world fame? You realize you don’t transcend your race if you get famous, right? Tiger was in a position of power and made choices I think a lot of people do and would make. People cheat every day, sleep around. Doesn’t make it right at all, but it happens, people make these decisions. I think it’s funny how everyone has an angle on this one. I see people with very personal problems of their own taking shots at Tiger all day every day, knowing he won’t respond.

I’m not saying he is justified in anything he did. I don’t particularly care either way about him. He is who he is, and nothing I do or say will change who he is. Understand that I’m not biased and I’m not standing up for his because he’s my idol, or anything like that.

When people are posting statuses all day, tweeting etc, and just bringing him down, well, it’s pathetic. Find some other way to bring yourself up than recycling a joke from some guy on the radio. I talk some shit too, in fact, I have on this blog, and I know it’s wrong, but good lord people, 3 months of non-stop shit talking?
Look- Don’t mock his composure during his apology, because you know what? When you fuck up, you don’t hold a press conference and apologize to people you don’t know. You don’t owe it to them, and Tiger doesn’t owe it to you. You never cared about his personal life before, you just care that you have a way to justify yourself as better than someone, and you feel a little bit of power there. You’ve got a theoretical “leg to stand on” against a celebrity.

 So all you haters, find some other way to feel good about yourselves. Oh, and I know you’ll be interested in his scores when he does decide to play again.

Moving Day

Today holds a big deadline in the NBA, and all of the trading was done by noon pacific. Two of the biggest trade pieces, Amar’e Stoudemire and Andre Iguadola both stayed on their respective teams, and many other moves sent mediocre players to new teams (many for the purposes of cap space for this summer’s free agents).

This NBA offseason holds one of the greatest free agent lists…ever: Lebron, Shaq, Carlos Boozer, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Tyson Chandler, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, Joe Johnson, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Redd.

Regardless, a few players changed teams, none more notable than Antwan Jamison joining the Cavaliers. This is significant because Lebron wanted Stoudemire more, and management didn’t give in. While there’s speculation that Jamison is a better fit for the team, and Amar’e would have been more expensive to re-sign, we all know that there’s one players in Cleveland that sells tickets and jerseys. News-Herald.com summarized this point perfectly:

“Everything the Cavs do, every move they make, every breath they take, must be done from the perspective of "What gives us the best chance to keep LeBron?"


From there, it's a short trip to: "What does LeBron want?"


If LeBron wants Stoudemire, then that should become the team's top priority. If LeBron wants Antawn Jamison more than Stoudemire, then acquiring Jamison becomes priority No. 1.


Heck, if LeBron wants Spud Webb, go get Spud Webb.


The whole basis of the Cavs' operation in the months leading up to LeBron's free-agent decision is, and should be, a desire to do everything organizationally possible to make LeBron want to stay in Cleveland. Implicit in that policy is the rather basic directive, "Give him what he wants."”

Everyone knows Lebron loves New York, and has said he wants to play there. If Cleveland wasn’t lucky enough to have had Lebron born and raised in Ohio, he would probably already be polaying in New York. Lebron knows he’s a superstar who’s bigger than any other player right now. He hugs Jay-Z after Knicks games, he is a celebrity who celebrities are in awe of.

It’s hard to imagine Lebron staying in Cleveland if they don’t win a title this year. That’s why management probably should have given him whatever he wants.

Other notable trades include “worst first overall draft pick ever” Darko Milicic for Brian Cardinal. Knicks get washed up Tracey Mcgrady, Rockets get the Kings up-and-comer Kevin Martin, and Sacramento gets… Carl Landry, Joey Dorsey, Larry Hughes (well done Maloof brothers, maybe this will be the trade northern Cal finds unforgivable).

The Mavericks pulled off the largest move of the year 4 days ago, getting essentially Caron Butler and Brendan Heywood for Josh Howard and throw ins. So far the Mavericks are 1-1 with these new players, but I’m sure they’ll end up disappointing Mark Cuban back into severe depression soon enough.

As ho-hum as all this trade talk is, I hope you could find some value out of this summary, and I’ll be back to rant on horrible northen Cal. sports soon enough.

Possibly the worst epic song ever

The keyboard melody is familiar. The power cuts by Eddie Van Halen are classic. Hagar’s voice is vintage Sammy. And I just had to stop for a second.


here's the song to refresh your memory
“Love walks in” by Van Halen has been recently re-introduced to me via a local radio station. I’ve seriously heard it 3 times out of a total of 45 listening minutes (over a week or so). Check out the lyrics, don’t they make you say, “wait, what?”


and then you sense a change

nothin' feels the same

all your dreams are strange

love comes walkin' in

some kind of alien

waits for the opening

simply pulls a string

love comes walkin' in

oh, sleep and dream

that's all I crave

I travel far across the milky way

to my master

I've become a slave

'til we meet again

some other day

where silence speaks

as loud as war

earth returns to what it was before

love comes walkin' in

baby, pull a string


I definitely had to find out what was going on in this classic (or used to be) song. Turns out Sammy Hagar believes he was raped by aliens 3 to 4 times.


"I'm a firm believer -- have seen, have felt, have been contacted three or four different times. I have received information that has been valuable in my life from those people, and they have used me. I'm gonna sound like a complete nut here, but they have used me in an experimental fashion" -Sammy Hagar


So there you go. Sammy tried to make the song more popular by adding “Baby pull a string” as if he was singing about a woman, but really the lyrics look like this:

and then you sense a change – you wake up out of place


nothin' feels the same – strapped to a table


all your dreams are strange – feeling drugged


love comes walkin' in – (the hook, or chorus. Out of place here)


some kind of alien – Definitely an Alien


waits for the opening – turns you over


simply pulls a string - draws the window shades to a close


love comes walkin' in – penetration/rapes the shit out of you






Next time you’re rocking out hard to this song… Don’t rock out so hard, k?

Propping a Boner

I’m sure that anyone reading my blog watched the super bowl yesterday, so I won’t recap the drives and the obvious outcome. I don’t find that stuff to be a particularly exciting or enjoyable read if you saw it live, and I have to assume that neither do you. I will say that the Saints were a great team to watch all year, and its good to see the “underdog” take this one. I’m also glad that the game went under the posted total of 57 points. It was absolutely absurd to see an NFL total go that high, and I cashed the under easily. I think people seem to forget that when the Colts or Saints win a game scoring 30-40 points, they usually hold the opponent under 20. The reason these teams score often is because of their ability to capitalize on drives, and force turnovers. Taking possessions away from an opposing team limits their ability to score, which is why you’ll often see 30-14 or 37-10 types of games. With both teams playing well and not turning the ball over (except for Porter’s 4th quarter pick-6), there were essentially less chances of a huge shootout or blowout type of game. Hope that makes sense. I believe that if you play that game 100 times, 75% of the time it goes under 57. That’s an astronomical number that Vegas knows people will bet on.



Now Things I do find interesting are the props. Proposition bets are things off the field that aren’t particularly related to the game. Like the side of the coin that will land on the coin flip (heads won it). The length of the national anthem (over 1:42?). How much time will be on the clock when the coach gets doused with Gatorade? (Under :45, actual time about :20) I’d like to recap the results of some of the funny/interesting ones ones.

In the party house I went to we were all watching The Who halftime show. There was one thing we all wanted to see: how many Windmills would the guitarist do? It’s Pete Townsend’s thing you know. The line was 6. if you bet over 6, you would have won. He had done 5 by the time song 2/5 was done in their medley. We were all talking about this one: someone, probably a temp/roadie intern type of guy, had to have said “hey Pete, they’re betting on how many times you’ll do the arm-windmill thing” Pete goes “really? What’s the number?”, “6” intern replies, “Oh” Pete says, “I’m gonna F***ing crush that”

The big tip-off should have been during the pre game show, when they showed light footage of their rehearsal, and in Pete’s 2 seconds of face time, he cranks out 4-5 windmills. That was the giveaway: This guy was here to set a breeze the entire staium would feel. Final number was like 20-something. Maybe it was his way of seeming really cool, and making up for not smashing the guitar afterwards (another yes or no prop). That one seemed easy. Ever since the Jackson nip slip, the Super bowl committee has booked people too old to do any really good damage to the audience. Yeah, Pete can swing his arm, but is he really strong enough to lift that thing and break it? Don’t think so, easy win. Here’s some more results:

How long will it take Carrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem?

Over/Under 1 minute and 42 seconds

WINNER = OVER (1:45), DUH! Singers love to draw that sucker out! Over has won the last 2-3 years in a row now!


What color will the Gatorade dumped on the winning head coach be?

WINNER = Orange (5 to 1) * third biggest long shot. Orange is a classic flavor though, and in my mind, players would probably prefer that flavor in the cooler over some of the other colors (blue, lemon lime) that were available.


How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV: over/under = 4.5

WINNER = UNDER *contrary to heavy action on “over”. Mike Strap said it best “This is the superbowl, they have more important things to show that certain people in the stands.” Even if he is tied to both teams.



How many times will Kim Kardashian be shown on TV: over/under = 2.5

WINNER = UNDER *contrary to heavy action on “over”. This was sketchy from the beginning. This isn’t like Kurt Warner’s wife, who overcame cancer etc. This is the girlfriend of a Running-Back in a timeshare situation. Easy call on the under here.


Will Kim K. Be shown in saints attire?

Winner= NO, because she was never shown, and we’ll never know what she was wearing.


Who will the Super Bowl MVP “thank” first?

WINNER = “does not thank anyone” (2 to 1). This is surprising, Usually there winner is “God”, “Teammates”, “Coach”, “Fans” etc. Considering MVP was going to be a quarterback, and Drew Brees is a “religious” guy to be PC, I would have thought thanks would have been given to someone if not God at least. Big shocker here.


How many times will Katrina be mentioned during the game? Over/Under 2.5

Winner= Under. This was a bit surprising, but also nice not to hear about it the whole time. I thought the announcers did a great job.

What’s higher, the sum of Kim K’s measurements or Reggie bush total rushing/receiving yards +28?

Kim=34+26+39= 99. Reggie Bush 25 yds rushing/38 receiving =63, +28= 91

Winner=Kim’s Junk. This was a silly, but close one!

 

Will a player give the crowd the "middle finger"?

Winner= no. Easy 8-1 take here too. These teams are way classier than Rex Ryan!

If Saints win, will Reggie Bush and Kim Kardashian be engaged by July 31, 2010? No = -150 (meaning the chance has been placed at 40 percent)


We’ve got about 6 months before this one is settled!


I’m a little astounded at the number Reggie/Kim K bets, but LA is a big market and there are 2 big ties there. And after all, there were over 300 bets this year, and I’m looking forward to picking some of the 300 next year as well!

It Is What It Is

I hate this saying. Used to anyways. It’s one of those sayings that comes out of someone’s mouth, and you kind of think “wow, thanks for contributing absolutely nothing to the conversation.”


And yet, it’s absolutely irrefutable. You can’t argue that “it isn’t what it is”. History is concrete, cannot be changed (unless you exist in the world of LOST? But that’s besides the point.) “It is what it is” turns out to be moreso advice than anything. A way to ground ourselves, put things in perspective, a nicer way to say GET OVER IT!

There’s a point in life where everyone is completely surprised by something, expecting fully one thing to happen (based on past experiences) and another thing totally happens. When the Patriots lost a perfect season in the Superbowl, even Giants fans were surprised. This team won 18 games in a row and even beat the Giants earlier in the year. Everyone who watched should have known “past experiences don’t guarantee future results”. It is what it is.

Wes Welker shouldn’t have played that last, meaningless 2010 regular season game for the Pats. He did play. Now he gets to sit for 16 games and playoffs next year. It is what it is.

There was a prop line on a sport betting site, odds that the Manning’s would beat the Donald’s in a commercial depicting an Oreo eating contest. This commercial was aired recently, and the Manning’s “won” because the Donald’s were arguing while the quarterbacks were frantically eating. It wasn’t a fair contest, just one team obliterating another that wasn’t even playing. Why is this so serious to me? Because anyone who was in production on the commercial could have dumped their entire life savings on the Manning’s, and made 14% instantly. Odds were Manning’s to win -700 (bet 7$ to win 1$). It was fixed, and many people missed out. It is what it is.

I recently bet on the Warriors, 3 times actually. Lost all 3 bets. My experience tells me “every time you bet on the Warriors, you will lose”. In truth, though, Golden State is 26-20 Against the Spread. They have this public perception that they’re so bad, it doesn’t matter what the line is, they will still not be able to cover it. 20 times that was true. 26 times it wasn’t. It is what it is. (By the Way, tonight against Dallas they are getting 12 points).

People who are new to gambling often have a tough time accepting this saying. If once you play blackjack and double down, and win, you have a perception: every time you have doubled down, you have won. This won’t always hold true. As betting on the Yankees isn’t always going to be winning proposition, betting the Devil rays isn’t always going to be a losing one.

Maybe writing this is just a little therapeutic for me. There are perceptions I need to accept, and let go of. I believe everyone has a few they could afford to lose. Can you think of something you expected that never happened? Or something you didn’t expect coming to existence? It’s good to have expectations. Keeps us sane, allows us to believe something instead of being apathetic to the world. But it’s also important to realize that what’s happened? Well, it’s happened. It is what it is.

The Oracle sees all:

Yesterday watching Sunday football many of us were made painfully
aware of 1 thing: the NFL wanted to see Peyton Manning and Brett Favre
in the super bowl. ESPN had been talking about it all week: Despite
the Jets having the largest media market of the four teams, and New
Orleans having a great story of a city reborn, Manning V. Favre would
be the biggest draw. The Colts did what San Diego should have (put
away the Jets and fat clown Rex Ryan). It was a hard fought battle the
first half, but everyone knows you can’t count entirely on:


1. Braylon Edwards to catch a ball in the open field


And


2. Wide receiver trick plays to make all of the important downfield passes


Peyton and the Colts stormed back and beat dirty Sanchez, covering the
8 point spread in the process. Pierre Garcon was the difference, as
Peyton avoided throwing near the Jets only exciting player (cornerback
Darelle Revis who was covering no. 1 WR Wayne).


Game 2 was different. It seemed like the Saints were playing against
not only the 11 Vikings on the field, but the referees and the NFL at
large. The Saints were called for 9 Penalties, resulting in 88 yards.
3 of the 9 were called on Incomplete 3rd downs, resulting in a new
series. One was called on a 4th down punt, keeping the Vikings drive
alive with a new series of downs. Twice those were debatable “roughing
the passer” calls. Even the announcers Buck and Aikman were skeptical
of the calls.


Still not convinced? Re-watch the game. How much face time does Favre
get? Favre is one of the first players shown on Camera after the
Saints win in OT. Favre is shown every 2.1 seconds.


The NFL wants people to feel bad for this old guy. When did they show
Brees on the ground after a tough hit? I didn’t see it. But they made
damn sure to replay every time Favre was hit. That guy flops more than
Vlade Divac, former flop KING.

Favre even pretended his ankle really
hurt at halftime, sitting on the trainers bench. “oh come on beagle,
he’s tough, maybe he really was hurt. Really? Were you watching the
same game I was? The game where no. 4 came out and played the second
half without a flinch? Where’s your hurt leg now? Here’s how it reads
in the NY Times the next day “They will remember Brett Favre, the
Vikings’ quarterback, battered by hard hits from Saints defenders,
coming back from an ankle injury to lead two second-half comebacks to
tie the score.”
Right. You tell me how a team who turns the ball over 5 times (3
fumbles lost, 2 interceptions) loses by only 3. I’ll wait.




Yesterday we also saw the emergence of two Oracles’, seers of the
future. The Indy game was blessed by Kyle Abraham, who successfully
texted me 2 DAYS BEFORE THE GAME “Colts 30, Jets 17”. He was right.
After he was, I revisited his other prediction. Saints 26, Vikings 17.
And while he was wrong by halftime, I knew maybe the margin (9) was
what he was seeing. So I placed a prop bet, saints to win by 7-10
points. He was wrong again when the Vikings scored with 5 minutes left
in the 4th, tying the game (7 point margin was now gone). Maybe what
he was seeing was Brees’ number “9”, as the difference in the game.
We’ll see what his predictions are for the superbowl. He is one of two
so far…


The second Oracle is the Saints kicker, Hartley. Have you heard about
this? Hartley and his dad confirmed that late Saturday night, Hartley
called his pop with a prediction “I’m going to hit the game winner,
from 42 yards out, right hashmark”. It happened, except from 40 yards
out. Saints won by 3. You can read about it here
(http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/25/sports/football/25nfc.html)
Armed with this knowledge, maybe Vegas and I wouldn’t have had the
Saints line at 3.5…

Haiti: Thanks but NO THANKS

Beagleview exclusive:

Following in a trend with other celebs, Lady Gaga offered something to help those in Haiti... and they rejected.

After submitting to the government a proposal to sing "bad romance" in a skimpier version of her frog outfit for those left homeless, the Haitian government countered "we're desperate...but no that desperate. That literally does nothing, for anyone. Plus Ur ugly."

In a second correspondence, the government added: "But we will take Justin Beiber if  he's interested"

Final Thoughts from Kaedings Final Day as a Charger

Next up:

1. Why the Jets image as a good team is a fraud.
2. Why you should always bet exactly against the way I do
3. Sanchez/Coach caught having Buttrex in visitor locker room

John Harbaugh's retarded gameplan for the Colts

I'll give it to the Raven's D, they held indy to 20. Not too bad (although Peyton manning couldn't be stopped on 3rd or 4th downs) But the real travesty was the offense. Ray Rice had 13 carries for 67 yards, and 9 receptions for 60. Hello? Shouldn't John Harbaugh realize they have receivers? Next leading receiver had 4 catches (almost all of them on the first drive).

Look, Indy's D came to play, which isn't what most people expected, considering the year they had. BUT if they're targeting, and stopping, Ray Rice for 4 yards or less every time he touches the ball, shouldn't the Ravens, um, try something new? Like throwing the ball BEYOND the first down marker?

Playoffs round 2!

So, here we are again, week 2. This week features some great match ups I want to touch on. We'll go right down the betting card.

The first game is the Saints and the Cards this afternoon. I like the Saints in this spot because, although both teams are high-powered, the saints have a better defense IMO. Without Boldin again, Warner will have to pick on Larry Fitz and Breaston, where Brees simply finds the open man. One thing that makes Brees so great is that he'll spread the ball all over the field, and it's foolish to double cover one receiver when he has 3-4 great ones out there. I also like the Saints running back situation: The PT cruiser (pierre thomas) for the first 90 yards of the field, then Bush with the screen pass or Mike Bell to pound it in there. It will be interesting to watch and see is Thomas's 3 fractured ribs will slow him down. I like The Saints for their better defense and running game.

My big money is on the Ravens to cover a 6.5 spread against Indy tonight. I'm not sure they won't win outright, either. Indy isn't a good team. I said it. They have a great QB in Manning, but they're below average in everything else. Manning led them to a record seven fourth-quarter comeback wins. 7 of their wins were by 4 points or less. The last time these two played, the Ravens lost by just 2.

The Ravens however, won 3 of their last 4 (a 3 point loss to Pittsburgh), and just beat the Patriots on their home field. Indy is an easier road stadium to win in than Foxborough. I wouldn't play up the home field advantage here too much. Look at this:

 Baltimore rushes for 60 more YPG than Indy offensively, and defensively allows 30 less yards. Baltimore also allows only 16 points per game compared to Indy's 19. Thus far we've seen the teams that can run the ball and that have better defenses win games. Look at the Jets, look at the Ravens last week, look at the Cowboys. Not to mention Indy hasn't played a meaningful game in a month.

Like I said, I like Baltimore to AT LEAST cover this spread, if not win outright.

Sunday Morning brings Church and the Cowboys. I like the Cowboys over the Vikings in the upset spot, because they are playing great defense (remember when they shut down the saints, and didn't lose since?). Dallas is hot, and they are only allowing 15.5 points per game (minnesota allows 19.5). Meanwhile, the Vikings started a slow slide when they lost to Carolina on 12/20, and had just the win over the terrible Giants before their bye week. The Vikings have been struggling, and that's not a team you want to bet on.

Dallas has 3 great running backs who mix things up, while the Vikes have just Adrian Peterson, who is great, but there's no differentiation. When Favre is bad, he's really bad (think end of last year with the Jets), I think we get a bad week out of Favre, maybe 2-3 INT's and 4 sacks.

Cowboys Safety Gerald Sensabaugh said ""We'd have to beat ourselves to lose," "The way we're playing right now, I don't think we can be beat."

The Chargers and the Jets kick off the last game of the weekend. As a Charger fan, I'm scared of the Jets. The Jets played really well against the Bengals, and have a potent running game, and a shutdown corner in Revis who can take Vincent Jackson out of this game. The Chargers, are however, on an 11 game winning streak, and have another great option in Antonio Gates if Jackson isn't available. If the Chargers can stop the Jets running game, I like them to win by double digits, but after seeing how well the Jets played last weekend, I'll take the Chargers Moneyline, or maybe a 6 point teaser in this spot. The key will be to get Sanchez to throw the ball, because the Jets are bad when they rely on his arm. He threw over 20 interceptions this year, and I see a couple more coming Sunday if he throws the ball upwards of 20 times.

As always, I'd love your thoughts and disagreements on these games.

Unforgiven...Thus far

I've got some thoughts and motives behind McGwire's Apology.

            First: Why did it take so long? Sorry Big Mac, everyone knew you were guilty in that courtroom, and “I don’t want to talk about the past” is clearly incriminating. Rafael Palmeiro straight-up lied in that same courtroom, and got booed out of baseball when he came back guilty. Dude had to wear earplugs to home games because of all the boos. So why did you wait?

            Fans want to forgive, but they want an admission and apology first. It’s hard to remember who has admittedly done steroids, but we can’t forget who is under speculation. Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, David Ortiz to name a few. Check out this list:

http://www.baseballssteroidera.com/bse-list-steroid-hgh-users-baseball.html

How many under “admitted” are really in trouble right now? Add to that Pettitte, Brian Roberts who both apologized, got no suspensions, and continue to play without much mention of that stuff.

            

Maybe Mcgwire saw these apologetic guys getting forgiven, and non-confessed players still on everyone’s shit list. Maybe he wanted off said shit-list and wanted forgiveness? My guess is...

Who’s to say he didn’t wait out two voting periods to the Hall of Fame before realizing he won’t have a shot without a confession? Eventually the vote comes down to the writers, so he came clean a few days after getting snubbed a second time, (thinking) hopefully they will have fully forgiven him enough to vote him in come 2011. Maybe he thought non-admission would be good enough for them to vote him in 2 years ago. Now that he's tried that, he'll try the apologetic angle. Personally, I think it's crazy that he's not in yet. Pete Rose too. Why? Because Ty Cobb is in. I don't care that he's a legend. He is probably top 10 meanest people to live pre-1950. Check this (from themorningnews.org) "A racist, a bigot, and a thug, Cobb slept with a loaded revolver beneath his pillow in case his teammates tried to beat him up in the night. He took his anger out on the game: hitting, running, and fielding like no one before. Even in that early, anarchistic era of sharpened cleats and raging mobs in the bleachers, Cobb was the supreme force of anarchy. Once, after being heckled by a fan, Cobb leapt into the stands and pummeled the man, who was later revealed to have been missing most of his fingers from an industrial accident. Off the diamond Cobb wasn’t much better: He routinely punched or knocked down passing blacks on the streets and once, during an altercation in a Cleveland hotel, Cobb slashed the black night manager with a knife."

Thoughts from the Bash Bros...

Tonight's NBA Pick

I like New Orleans, who have won 6 in a row, and are going against a Philly Team who is 4-12 at home (and is probably playing without Iverson tonight). N.O. is a small dog (you'll probably get 1.5 points or +110 on the moneyline here). Here's the quick accuscore data

Consider this my play of the day

Winning at the Staples center...

01/10/10 playoffs

Thus far we've seen teams with a better D come through twice in this wild card weekend. The Jets shut down the Bengals, and the Cowboys walloped the eagles. Early on I decided against a play on this team, but because I do like Philly, I tried a conservative +10.5 bet which still lost. Live and learn. If you followed my Jets or NBA Philadelphia picks, you're still way up though

My Ravens pick is looking good as of halftime, and as predicted, the better Ravens defense and a Pats offense without Welker has been shut down (minus the punt recovery, which honestly, should have been called the Raven's ball).

I'm still looking forward to the Green Bay/Arizona game, which has a line move of close to 5 points in the GB direction since early this week. The smart money is moving that line, because Everyone knows the GB defense is much better than Arizona's. If AZ can't throw the ball, this game should end with the Pack up by at least a touchdown.

We'll see if the "better defense" trend continues through the playoffs... Traditionally it has

Philly road trip

First off, love that Jets win! As predicted, Revis shut down Ocho for only 2 catches and 28 yards, with an INT. The Jets were a more physical team, and got the much deserved win. look out for these underdogs in round 2.

I'm picking (NBA) Philly straight up to win in Detroit tonight. Although AI is sitting, I feel like tonight isn't the night that detroit turns it around... They've lost 10 f 11, 9 of those by double digits. I'm taking Philly +170

I'm Also taking the adjusted NFL line (Eagles +10.5) for a mere -260. I think this one's going to be closer than they think.

Value on NBA Home Games

Last night the Lakers were a 3.5 point favorite when they visited the Portland Trail Blazers, despite the fact the Blazers hadn't lost a home game to the Lakers since 2005! Last night, 9/12 home teams won their games straight up, beating teams like the Cavs, Lakers, Celtics and Magic! For some reason, the home court has a huge influence on these games. Looking over the season thus far, only 6/30 teams have losing records at home... and 3 of those are in the Atlantic division (NY, Philly and NJ).

Today's spreads have ALL of the home teams favored to win. My point is, whenever you see a an underdog at home, they warrant serious consideration for a money line play, if not at least a spread play.

UNDERDOG (WILDCARD WEEK) LINES

Here's the lines I like this weekend with a brief why:


Jets have a shutdown corner in Darelle Revis, AKA REVIS ISLAND


Without Ochocinco, the Bengals will have a tough time throwing the ball, as Palmer did all season (although Mark Sanchez will probably continue to struggle as well). I see this game being a running game, coming down to shutdown D from the Jets, and a game of few touchdown keep this total under 34.


Can Dallas beat the eagles 3 times in a season? hard to say, both teams can be explosive. I'll take my money to the under though, as both D's will step up against the pass, and only allow a few TD's through the air. Desean Jackson will be doubled up, and butterfingers Williams (IMO) can't be trusted for the 'boys.


Patriots: Without Welker. Do I need to say more? Without him, Moss and Brady's numbers really SUFFER. I like Baltimore's advantage here


The only Reason the Cardinals are getting a point here is because of home field. The spread has already moved 2 points in the Packers favor since it opened. Minus the last-second-loss at Pitt, the Packers have won 8 in a row, and haven't lost Against The Spread in those 8 weeks. 

Here's this season's splits in 
points scored, points allowed between these two

Pack- 28.8 / 18.6
Zona- 23.4 / 20.3

 Quick ratio shows us, on average in this game, pack will score 24.5, Zona will score 21. Not to mention the Card's #2 reciever (Boldin) is out, I think Green bay can double up on Larry Fitz and win this one.

STAY AWAY FROM LA!

Last night I was reminded why I don't bet on the Lakers spreads this year. The Clippers not only covered that spread (+5), but beat up the Lakers 102-91. Now the Lakers are still 28-7, but for an elite team, they have not been convincing their dominance. They are 15-20 Against the Spread, and have a bad tendency to look past the struggling teams in the league. Example: Sacramento is 14-20. They have lost 6-7 of their last games. They've had it rough, with their two leading scorers out for weeks. Sacramento had LA by the balls BOTH times they played.


Game 1 ended after double OT, and the kings had the ball with 15 seconds left in regulation, tie game. Instead of moving the ball to get a shot, Tyreke Evans forced it up, bricked, and eventually they hemorrhaged a 7 point OT1 lead as well.

Game 2 ended 109-108, with Kobe pulling off the shove in the final seconds before nailing that        LAST SECOND 3. 

According to Tim Donaghy's book, (the gambling ref): If Kobe Bryant had two fouls in the first or second quarter and went to the bench, one referee would tell the other two, "Kobe's got two fouls. Let's make sure that if we call a foul on him, it's an obvious foul, because otherwise he's gonna go back to the bench. If he is involved in a play where a foul is called, give the foul to another player."

Even with star treatment, the Lakers are having a difficult time putting away teams they should handle. Now I'm not saying they're bad.... But I'm not taking a single spread on the Lakers this season. W/L maybe, but careful with them.

"BCS Championship" or "Why I can't see Texas winning"

One of the perks of living in beautiful Pasadena is the Rose Bowl. This historic stadium (and 3 mile running/biking loop) draws millions annually for UCLA games, concerts, recreation, rose parade floats, and "the granddaddy of them all" The Rose Bowl game. This year Pasadena doubled up and got the National Championship game as well. This means there will be one more week where thousands of fans foreign to this city will come parading downtown, filling the bars and either celebrating a win (drinking), or drowning the taste of a bitter loss (drinking more).

This is precisely why I want to be downtown tomorrow night around, say 9pm. Tons of Texas/Bama folk will be drunken and spilling their funny words with funny accents all over this town. I'm sure cowboy hats and boots will be seen all the way down the Colorado Blvd strip. This night literally has unlimited potential, equaled maybe only by that weird dance party you went to (everyone has been to one) which had unlimited alcohol.

Onto the game: There's 3 reasons why I think Alabama wins.

#1: Texas is pretty good offensive team (40.7 PPG). Florida is a comparable and maybe better offensive team. Alabama beat Florida and held them to 13 points. Tebow cried.

#2: Texas is a bad defensive team. On average they give up only 15.2 ppg, but had a difficult time against texas tech, yielding 39 points in a game that went down to the final minutes. Alabama gives up only 11 PPG, and puts up 31.7.

#3: Texas stumbled to the finish line. the aforementioned Texas Tech game was almost a disaster. They only beat Nebraska 13-12 (line was -14). They turned the ball over 5 times in the last 2 games. Alabama only 3. They take better care of the ball on offense. Oh yeah, and they have the Heisman-Winning running back on their side ('Bama rushes for 215.8 yds/game, Texas for 152.7).

I think Alabama will play better D and put up a couple rushing touchdowns, where the longhorns throw 2 td's/2 picks. Final score 24-17.

Weak 17

The NFL season just finished wrapping up week 17, which was the weakest viewing experience most fans could have had, for multiple reasons.

First, Fantasy football only runs 16 weeks, so the 17th has no value for millions of Sunday fans. Rightfully so, as all teams with a locked playoff spot will bench their players to ensure the starters are healthy for week 18. (this worked for everyone but Wes Welker of the Pats. See: Welker goes down

Second reason this week was terrible ties in with reason one. Teams sit their stars. The margin between first string and second string players is amazing.

Example: You figure the 14-1 Colts could have a decent showing against the 5-10 Bills going into week 17. They were, in fact, undefeated while they played their starters for the entire first 14 games of the season.  But in week 17 of 2009, they lost to the Bills 30-7. The Colt's backup QB, Curt Painter, understudy to one of the greatest QB's to ever throw a ball, completed only 4 passes (that's 1 completion for every 4.25 attempts!)

This was the story behind the weekend. Playoff teams shut it down early. I would imagine not even Bills fans feel good about a win like this. And how can you? "Thanks for the win, even though you weren't trying"

How about the previews of playoff round 1? Eagles/Cowboys, Packers/Cards, Jets/Bengals, maybe there would be some excitement there? Nope, they mailed it in too. Combined scores: 94-7 (Cowboys, Packers and Jets destroyed their opponents)

But, like drinking liquor, the chaser always ends the bitter taste of the shot. We should be seeing a brilliant playoff round next week.